Liefering vs Austria Vienna (Am)
2. Liga, Austria · 2026-08-21 · 18:30 CET
DWWLL
WLWLWThe score model made a Liefering win the most likely outcome at 53%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 57%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Liefering 1.82 – 1.16 Austria Vienna (Am).
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liefering win | 52.6% | 49.8% | +2.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.3% | 24.2% | -0.9% | ✗ |
| Austria Vienna (Am) win | 24.1% | 26.0% | -1.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.3% | 62.5% | -5.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.9% | 41.7% | -6.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 57.8% | 62.7% | -4.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 80.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 48.8% | 43.1% | +5.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Liefering 38.3 / Austria Vienna (Am) 23.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.