Liefering vs Austria Vienna (Am)
2. Liga, Austria · 2026-08-21 · 18:30 CET
WWWLD
DLLWWThe score model makes a Liefering win the most likely outcome at 53%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 57%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT over 1.5 goals — 48.8% vs 42.1% implied (+6.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Liefering 1.82 – 1.16 Austria Vienna (Am).
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liefering win | 52.6% | 51.0% | +1.6% |
| Draw | 23.4% | 23.9% | -0.5% |
| Austria Vienna (Am) win | 24.1% | 25.2% | -1.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.3% | 61.6% | -4.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.9% | 40.9% | -6.0% |
| Both teams to score | 57.8% | 61.4% | -3.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 80.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 48.8% | 42.1% | +6.7% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Liefering 38.5 / Austria Vienna (Am) 23.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.