Amstetten vs Hertha Wels
2. Liga, Austria · 2026-08-21 · 18:30 CET
DDLWW
LDLLLThe score model made an Amstetten win the most likely outcome at 45%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 56%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Amstetten 1.63 – 1.31 Hertha Wels.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amstetten win | 44.8% | 44.5% | +0.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.6% | 26.5% | -1.9% | ✓ |
| Hertha Wels win | 30.5% | 28.9% | +1.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.2% | 55.4% | +0.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.8% | 34.8% | -1.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 58.8% | 58.4% | +0.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.9% | 38.0% | -1.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Amstetten 38.3 / Hertha Wels 21.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.