Admira vs First Vienna
2. Liga, Austria · 2026-08-21 · 20:30 CET
LWLLW
LWWLDThe score model makes a Admira win the most likely outcome at 44%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 40%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 2.5 goals — 59.7% vs 46.9% implied (+12.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Admira 1.32 – 0.98 First Vienna.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Admira win | 44.1% | 38.5% | +5.6% |
| Draw | 28.3% | 27.0% | +1.3% |
| First Vienna win | 27.6% | 34.5% | -7.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.3% | 53.1% | -12.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.0% | 32.5% | -12.5% |
| Both teams to score | 45.9% | 57.4% | -11.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.6% | 36.1% | -5.5% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Admira 38.4 / First Vienna 38.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.