A. Salzburg vs Kapfenberg
2. Liga, Austria · 2026-08-21 · 18:30 CET
LWLDL
LLWLLThe score model made an A. Salzburg win the most likely outcome at 56%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 59%). It finished 3:2 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: A. Salzburg 1.93 – 1.14 Kapfenberg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Salzburg win | 55.7% | 47.5% | +8.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 22.4% | 25.3% | -2.9% | ✗ |
| Kapfenberg win | 21.9% | 27.1% | -5.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.1% | 58.2% | +0.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.7% | 37.5% | -0.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 58.2% | 59.5% | -1.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.3% | 40.1% | +0.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: A. Salzburg 20.8 / Kapfenberg 38.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.