Kabylie vs Rouisset
Ligue 1, Algeria · 2026-09-04 · 22:00 CET
WWDWL
WLLWLThe score model made a Kabylie win the most likely outcome at 60%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 42%). It finished 1:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kabylie 1.66 – 0.72 Rouisset.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kabylie win | 59.8% | 55.7% | +4.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.3% | 27.9% | -3.5% | ✗ |
| Rouisset win | 15.9% | 16.4% | -0.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.4% | 39.6% | +2.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.6% | 20.8% | +0.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 41.6% | 40.3% | +1.3% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 61.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.0% | 27.5% | -0.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kabylie 37.5 / Rouisset 19.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.