ASO Chlef vs CR Belouizdad
Ligue 1, Algeria · 2026-09-05 · 22:00 CET
LDDLL
DDDWWThe score model made a CR Belouizdad win the most likely outcome at 41%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 31%). It finished 3:3 (HT 2:3) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: ASO Chlef 0.85 – 1.11 CR Belouizdad.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASO Chlef win | 27.5% | 21.3% | +6.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 31.2% | 34.1% | -2.9% | ✓ |
| CR Belouizdad win | 41.4% | 44.6% | -3.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 58.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 31.2% | 33.5% | -2.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 13.5% | 17.8% | -4.2% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 38.5% | 39.6% | -1.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 61.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.3% | 23.7% | +4.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: ASO Chlef 36.6 / CR Belouizdad 37.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.