Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 27 OctThe season in numbers
Every market returned less than it cost this season. The closest, ht over 1.5, returned −6.0% at market prices across 81 matches — the bookmaker margin at work.
Cherno More produced performances worth 7 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 31.2' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
CSKA Sofia – Slavia Sofia2026-10-31 17:30Under 2.5Model 58.5%Implied 41.7%▲ +16.9%- Lok. Plovdiv – Ludogorets2026-10-31 12:00Under 2.5Model 63.4%Implied 60.6%▲ +2.8%
- Arda – Levski Sofia2026-10-27 17:30Under 1.5 HTModel 77.3%Implied 74.6%▲ +2.6%
- Dunav Ruse – Levski Sofia2026-10-31 14:30Home winModel 13.0%Implied 10.9%▲ +2.1%
- Cherno More – Septemvri Sofia2026-10-27 15:00Over 2.5Model 48.0%Implied 46.5%▲ +1.5%
- Cherno More – Botev Vratsa2026-11-02 15:00Home winModel 51.5%Implied 50.3%▲ +1.3%
- Lok. Sofia – Botev Plovdiv2026-10-30 17:30Away winModel 41.7%Implied 40.7%▲ +1.1%
- CSKA 1948 Sofia – Spartak Varna2026-10-30 15:00Over 1.5 HTModel 39.6%Implied 40.2%-0.6%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CSKA Sofia– Slavia Sofia | 2026-10-31 | 17:30 | Under 2.5 | 58.5% | 41.7% | ▲ +16.9% | 2.40 |
| 2 |  Lok. Plovdiv– Ludogorets | 2026-10-31 | 12:00 | Under 2.5 | 63.4% | 60.6% | ▲ +2.8% | 1.65 |
| 3 |  Arda– Levski Sofia | 2026-10-27 | 17:30 | Under 1.5 HT | 77.3% | 74.6% | ▲ +2.6% | 1.34 |
| 4 |  Dunav Ruse–Levski Sofia | 2026-10-31 | 14:30 | Home win | 13.0% | 10.9% | ▲ +2.1% | 9.15 |
| 5 |  Cherno More– Septemvri Sofia | 2026-10-27 | 15:00 | Over 2.5 | 48.0% | 46.5% | ▲ +1.5% | 2.15 |
| 6 | Cherno More– Botev Vratsa | 2026-11-02 | 15:00 | Home win | 51.5% | 50.3% | ▲ +1.3% | 1.99 |
| 7 |  Lok. Sofia– Botev Plovdiv | 2026-10-30 | 17:30 | Away win | 41.7% | 40.7% | ▲ +1.1% | 2.46 |
| 8 |  CSKA 1948 Sofia– Spartak Varna | 2026-10-30 | 15:00 | Over 1.5 HT | 39.6% | 40.2% | -0.6% | 2.49 |
Add Parva liga fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 27 OctWe simulate the remaining Parva liga schedule 10,000 times a day. Levski Sofia win the 2026-2027 title in 60% of them, projecting ~60 points; Ludogorets are next at 22%. At the other end, Septemvri Sofia finish in the bottom three in 81% of simulations. Biggest move after the latest results: Ludogorets's title chance down 12 points in a day.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Levski Sofia | 28 | 60 | 54–66 | ▲60% | >99% | — |
| 2 |  Ludogorets | 26 | 57 | 51–62 | ▼22% | >99% | — |
| 3 |  CSKA Sofia | 30 | 56 | 50–61 | ▲18% | >99% | — |
| 4 |  CSKA 1948 Sofia | 25 | 47 | 41–53 | <1% | 84% | — |
| 5 |  Botev Plovdiv | 19 | 39 | 33–45 | — | 9% | <1% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 12 |  Lok. Sofia | 9 | 25 | 20–31 | — | — | 39% |
| 13 |  Botev Vratsa | 10 | 25 | 19–30 | — | <1% | 47% |
| 14 |  Septemvri Sofia | 8 | 20 | 15–26 | — | — | 81% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 101 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/bulgaria/efbet-league/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="Parva liga live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/bulgaria/efbet-league">Parva liga stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every Parva liga match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CSKA Sofia | 30 | 24.8 | +5.2 | |
| 2 | Levski Sofia | 28 | 22.2 | +5.8 | |
| 3 | Ludogorets | 26 | 23.0 | +3.0 | |
| 4 | CSKA 1948 Sofia | 25 | 20.2 | +4.8 | |
| 5 | Botev Plovdiv | 19 | 17.3 | +1.7 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 12 |  Lok. Plovdiv | 9 | 13.7 | -4.7 | |
| 13 | Septemvri Sofia | 8 | 10.1 | -2.1 | |
| 14 |  Cherno More | 6 | 12.8 | -6.8 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysis
Go deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+