Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 8 OctThe season in numbers
Every market returned less than it cost this season. The closest, over 2.5 goals, returned −2.1% at market prices across 69 matches — the bookmaker margin at work.
Cherno More produced performances worth 6 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 31.9' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
CSKA 1948 Sofia – CSKA Sofia2026-10-11 17:00Home winModel 32.0%Implied 25.5%▲ +6.5%- Cherno More – Levski Sofia2026-10-11 14:30Under 1.5 HTModel 81.6%Implied 75.2%▲ +6.4%
- Lok. Sofia – Lok. Plovdiv2026-10-10 14:30Away winModel 31.6%Implied 25.3%▲ +6.4%
- Botev Vratsa – Spartak Varna2026-10-10 12:00Away winModel 30.4%Implied 25.6%▲ +4.7%
- Botev Plovdiv – Slavia Sofia2026-10-10 17:00Away winModel 25.0%Implied 20.4%▲ +4.6%
- Ludogorets – Arda2026-10-12 17:00BTTS: NoModel 57.9%Implied 56.2%▲ +1.7%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CSKA 1948 Sofia– CSKA Sofia | 2026-10-11 | 17:00 | Home win | 32.0% | 25.5% | ▲ +6.5% | 3.92 |
| 2 |  Cherno More– Levski Sofia | 2026-10-11 | 14:30 | Under 1.5 HT | 81.6% | 75.2% | ▲ +6.4% | 1.33 |
| 3 |  Lok. Sofia– Lok. Plovdiv | 2026-10-10 | 14:30 | Away win | 31.6% | 25.3% | ▲ +6.4% | 3.96 |
| 4 |  Botev Vratsa– Spartak Varna | 2026-10-10 | 12:00 | Away win | 30.4% | 25.6% | ▲ +4.7% | 3.90 |
| 5 |  Botev Plovdiv– Slavia Sofia | 2026-10-10 | 17:00 | Away win | 25.0% | 20.4% | ▲ +4.6% | 4.90 |
| 6 |  Ludogorets– Arda | 2026-10-12 | 17:00 | BTTS: No | 57.9% | 56.2% | ▲ +1.7% | 1.78 |
Add Parva liga fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 8 OctWe simulate the remaining Parva liga schedule 10,000 times a day. Levski Sofia win the 2026-2027 title in 57% of them, projecting ~59 points; Ludogorets are next at 33%. At the other end, Dunav Ruse finish in the bottom three in 71% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Levski Sofia | 25 | 59 | 53–65 | 57% | >99% | — |
| 2 |  Ludogorets | 23 | 57 | 51–63 | 33% | 99% | — |
| 3 |  CSKA Sofia | 24 | 52 | 46–58 | 9% | 96% | — |
| 4 |  CSKA 1948 Sofia | 22 | 47 | 40–53 | 1% | 74% | — |
| 5 |  Arda | 17 | 40 | 34–46 | <1% | 15% | <1% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 12 |  Lok. Plovdiv | 7 | 26 | 20–32 | — | <1% | 34% |
| 13 |  Septemvri Sofia | 8 | 22 | 16–28 | — | — | 68% |
| 14 | Dunav Ruse | 5 | 21 | 15–28 | — | — | 71% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 113 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/bulgaria/efbet-league/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="Parva liga live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/bulgaria/efbet-league">Parva liga stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every Parva liga match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levski Sofia | 25 | 20.2 | +4.8 | |
| 2 | CSKA Sofia | 24 | 21.6 | +2.4 | |
| 3 | Ludogorets | 23 | 19.7 | +3.3 | |
| 4 | CSKA 1948 Sofia | 22 | 17.4 | +4.6 | |
| 5 | Arda | 17 | 16.2 | +0.8 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 12 | Lok. Plovdiv | 7 | 11.1 | -4.1 | |
| 13 |  Cherno More | 6 | 12.1 | -6.1 | |
| 14 | Dunav Ruse | 5 | 8.0 | -3.0 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysis
Go deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+