Biggest divergence
Botev Vratsa – Levski Sofia+11.5%
Under 1.5 HT · data 83% vs market 72%
Fastest starters
Spartak Varna20%
2 of their 10 goals before 15′ — highest share in the league
Late-goal kings
Levski Sofia38%
8 of their 21 goals after 75′ — highest share in the league
The season in numbers
Least bad strategy
-0.8uEven the best blind strategy (over 2.5 goals) lost this season. The bookmaker margin is undefeated.
Most underrated by results
-5.7 ptsCherno More produced performances worth 6 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Fast starts
33%Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 33.5' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Botev Vratsa – Levski Sofia2026-09-13 14:45Under 1.5 HT ✓83.5%vs 71.9%▲ +11.5%- CSKA Sofia – Arda2026-09-12 18:15Under 2.5 ✓62.2%vs 57.5%▲ +4.7%
- Botev Plovdiv – Lok. Plovdiv2026-09-13 17:30Under 2.5 ✓59.1%vs 55.2%▲ +3.8%
- Slavia Sofia – Spartak Varna2026-09-13 12:15Home win ✓51.0%vs 48.5%▲ +2.4%
- Ludogorets – Septemvri Sofia2026-09-14 17:30Under 1.5 HT ✓65.9%vs 63.7%▲ +2.2%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | + | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Botev Vratsa– Levski Sofia | 2026-09-13 | 14:45 | Under 1.5 HT ✓ | 83.5% | 71.9% | ▲ +11.5% | 1.39 | |
| 2 |  CSKA Sofia– Arda | 2026-09-12 | 18:15 | Under 2.5 ✓ | 62.2% | 57.5% | ▲ +4.7% | 1.74 | |
| 3 |  Botev Plovdiv– Lok. Plovdiv | 2026-09-13 | 17:30 | Under 2.5 ✓ | 59.1% | 55.2% | ▲ +3.8% | 1.81 | |
| 4 |  Slavia Sofia– Spartak Varna | 2026-09-13 | 12:15 | Home win ✓ | 51.0% | 48.5% | ▲ +2.4% | 2.06 | |
| 5 |  Ludogorets– Septemvri Sofia | 2026-09-14 | 17:30 | Under 1.5 HT ✓ | 65.9% | 63.7% | ▲ +2.2% | 1.57 |
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 11 SeptWe simulate the remaining Parva liga schedule 10,000 times a day. Levski Sofia win the 2026-2027 title in 66% of them, projecting ~60 points; Ludogorets are next at 28%. At the other end, Dunav Ruse finish in the bottom three in 68% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Levski Sofia | 24 | 60 | 54–66 | 66% | >99% | — |
| 2 |  Ludogorets | 20 | 57 | 50–63 | 28% | 99% | — |
| 3 |  CSKA Sofia | 17 | 50 | 44–57 | 5% | 92% | — |
| 4 |  CSKA 1948 Sofia | 16 | 45 | 38–51 | <1% | 60% | <1% |
| 5 |  Arda | 16 | 42 | 35–49 | <1% | 37% | <1% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 12 |  Lok. Sofia | 3 | 25 | 18–32 | — | <1% | 43% |
| 13 |  Septemvri Sofia | 8 | 24 | 18–30 | — | — | 61% |
| 14 | Dunav Ruse | 4 | 22 | 16–29 | — | <1% | 68% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 127 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
</> Embed this table on your site</> Embed this table — free, updates hourly, keep the credit link
<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/bulgaria/efbet-league/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="Parva liga live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/bulgaria/efbet-league">Parva liga stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market strategies
flat stake · vs break-even — not betting adviceWhat blindly backing each market in every Parva liga match would have returned. Losing lines are the norm — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Over 2.5 goals▼ -0.8u
55 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing over 2.5 goals in every Parva liga match in 2026-2027: -0.8 units over 55 flat-stake bets.HT Under 1.5▼ -4.8u
55 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing ht under 1.5 in every Parva liga match in 2026-2027: -4.8 units over 55 flat-stake bets.Home wins▼ -6.1u
55 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing home wins in every Parva liga match in 2026-2027: -6.1 units over 55 flat-stake bets.Away wins▼ -8.2u
55 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing away wins in every Parva liga match in 2026-2027: -8.2 units over 55 flat-stake bets.HT Over 1.5▼ -8.2u
55 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing ht over 1.5 in every Parva liga match in 2026-2027: -8.2 units over 55 flat-stake bets.Under 2.5 goals▼ -10.1u
55 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing under 2.5 goals in every Parva liga match in 2026-2027: -10.1 units over 55 flat-stake bets.Draws▼ -15.6u
55 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing draws in every Parva liga match in 2026-2027: -15.6 units over 55 flat-stake bets.Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levski Sofia | 24 | 18.0 | +6.0 | |
| 2 | Ludogorets | 20 | 17.3 | +2.8 | |
| 3 | CSKA Sofia | 17 | 15.3 | +1.7 | |
| 4 | CSKA 1948 Sofia | 16 | 13.4 | +2.6 | |
| 5 | Arda | 16 | 13.6 | +2.4 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 12 | Dunav Ruse | 4 | 6.2 | -2.2 | |
| 13 |  Cherno More | 4 | 9.7 | -5.7 | |
| 14 | Lok. Sofia | 3 | 7.7 | -4.7 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysis
Go deeper
1X2 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 2.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 1.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartFirst Goal Time Trackerfull interactive chartTeam Goal Zones Heat Mapfull interactive chartPerformance vs Marketpoints vs xPTSGoals Tablescoring breakdownOdds archive · €296 seasons of open/close odds, every bookmaker
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+