Cherno More vs Botev Vratsa
Parva liga, Bulgaria · 2026-11-02 · 16:00 CET
LLDDL
WDDLDThe score model makes a Cherno More win the most likely outcome at 52%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 38%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Cherno More win — 51.5% vs 46.3% implied (+5.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Cherno More 1.42 – 0.80 Botev Vratsa.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cherno More win | 51.5% | 46.3% | +5.2% |
| Draw | 27.8% | 28.4% | -0.6% |
| Botev Vratsa win | 20.7% | 25.3% | -4.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38.2% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18.4% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 42.0% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 56.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 20.9% | — | — |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Cherno More 43.6 / Botev Vratsa 45.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Cherno More vs Botev Vratsa in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.