CSKA Sofia vs Slavia Sofia
Parva liga, Bulgaria · 2026-10-31 · 18:30 CET
WWDWW
WDLLDThe score model makes a CSKA Sofia win the most likely outcome at 63%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 41%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 2.5 goals — 58.5% vs 38.5% implied (+20.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: CSKA Sofia 1.70 – 0.64 Slavia Sofia.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| CSKA Sofia win | 62.8% | 76.4% | -13.7% |
| Draw | 23.9% | 15.5% | +8.3% |
| Slavia Sofia win | 13.4% | 8.0% | +5.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.5% | 61.5% | -20.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.9% | 40.8% | -19.9% |
| Both teams to score | 38.9% | 45.6% | -6.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.8% | 42.4% | -13.6% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: CSKA Sofia 44.7 / Slavia Sofia 45.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open CSKA Sofia vs Slavia Sofia in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.