Parva liga title race 2026/27: who will win the league?
Bulgaria · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 25 Oct 2026
Most likely to win the league: Levski Sofia (58%), Ludogorets (33%), CSKA Sofia (9%). 62 points were enough in 90% of 10,000 simulations.
enough to win the league in half the simulated seasons
enough to win the league in nine seasons out of ten
Champions chances, club by club
| Club | P | Pts | Proj. pts | Champions | Needs (90% line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Levski Sofia | 10 | 28 | 6054–66 | 58% | 34 from 16 (2.13/game) |
| Ludogorets | 10 | 26 | 5852–64 | 33% | 36 from 16 (2.25/game) |
| CSKA Sofia | 11 | 27 | 5448–59 | 9% | 35 from 15 (2.33/game) |
Below 1%: CSKA 1948 Sofia, Botev Plovdiv, Arda, Slavia Sofia, Spartak Varna, Cherno More, Dunav Ruse, Lok. Plovdiv, Lok. Sofia, Botev Vratsa, Septemvri Sofia.
What does each club need?
Pick a club and test how many points from its remaining games are needed to win the league.
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How these chances are made
A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 103 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes first. The points line is what the club finishing 2nd ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.
The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).