CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Spartak Varna
Parva liga, Bulgaria · 2026-10-30 · 16:00 CET
LWWLW
DDLWLThe score model makes a CSKA 1948 Sofia win the most likely outcome at 67%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 55%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT over 1.5 goals — 39.6% vs 37.3% implied (+2.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: CSKA 1948 Sofia 2.07 – 0.80 Spartak Varna.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| CSKA 1948 Sofia win | 66.7% | 65.4% | +1.3% |
| Draw | 20.2% | 21.2% | -1.1% |
| Spartak Varna win | 13.1% | 13.3% | -0.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.8% | 54.8% | +0.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.5% | 33.9% | -1.4% |
| Both teams to score | 48.4% | 49.5% | -1.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.6% | 37.3% | +2.3% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: CSKA 1948 Sofia 44.7 / Spartak Varna 41.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Spartak Varna in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.