Seattle Sounders vs Los Angeles FC
MLS, USA · 2026-11-08 · 01:00 CET
LDDLL
DWDDLThe score model makes a Seattle Sounders win the most likely outcome at 37%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 71.9% vs 61.4% implied (+10.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Seattle Sounders 1.35 – 1.33 Los Angeles FC.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Sounders win | 36.7% | 45.7% | -8.9% |
| Draw | 27.3% | 25.1% | +2.2% |
| Los Angeles FC win | 36.0% | 29.2% | +6.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.1% | 59.4% | -9.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.1% | 38.6% | -10.5% |
| Both teams to score | 55.1% | 61.5% | -6.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.3% | 41.0% | -6.7% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Seattle Sounders 50.2 / Los Angeles FC 48.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Seattle Sounders vs Los Angeles FC in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.