Houston Dynamo vs St. Louis City
MLS, USA · 2026-11-08 · 01:00 CET
DDDWL
DLLLLThe score model makes a Houston Dynamo win the most likely outcome at 39%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 56%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 66.7% vs 62.8% implied (+3.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Houston Dynamo 1.49 – 1.42 St. Louis City.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Dynamo win | 38.6% | 40.4% | -1.8% |
| Draw | 26.0% | 26.0% | -0.1% |
| St. Louis City win | 35.4% | 33.5% | +1.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.6% | 57.3% | -1.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.3% | 37.2% | -3.9% |
| Both teams to score | 59.4% | 60.4% | -1.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.9% | 38.5% | -3.5% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Houston Dynamo 49 / St. Louis City 49.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Houston Dynamo vs St. Louis City in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.