Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC
MLS, USA · 2026-11-07 · 22:00 CET
WDLDL
DWLWLThe score model makes a Philadelphia Union win the most likely outcome at 70%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 64%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 60.0% vs 51.7% implied (+8.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Philadelphia Union 2.40 – 0.89 Toronto FC.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Union win | 70.3% | 64.6% | +5.7% |
| Draw | 18.0% | 18.9% | -0.9% |
| Toronto FC win | 11.7% | 16.5% | -4.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.9% | 67.3% | -3.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41.8% | 49.6% | -7.7% |
| Both teams to score | 54.1% | 60.7% | -6.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.0% | 48.3% | -8.3% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Philadelphia Union 49.7 / Toronto FC 49.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.