Orlando City vs New England Revolution
MLS, USA · 2026-11-07 · 22:00 CET
DWDDL
WWWWLThe score model makes an Orlando City win the most likely outcome at 46%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 73%). The data's biggest gap to the market: New England Revolution win — 31.7% vs 27.2% implied (+4.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Orlando City 2.07 – 1.70 New England Revolution.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando City win | 46.4% | 50.0% | -3.7% |
| Draw | 21.9% | 22.8% | -0.9% |
| New England Revolution win | 31.7% | 27.2% | +4.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 89.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 72.7% | 70.5% | +2.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 52.1% | 50.5% | +1.5% |
| Both teams to score | 71.9% | 68.9% | +3.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 79.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 47.3% | 49.2% | -1.9% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Orlando City 49.7 / New England Revolution 49.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.