New York Red Bulls vs Atlanta Utd
MLS, USA · 2026-11-07 · 22:00 CET
LLWLL
WLLLWThe score model makes a New York Red Bulls win the most likely outcome at 45%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 56%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 66.2% vs 51.3% implied (+14.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: New York Red Bulls 1.63 – 1.30 Atlanta Utd.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York Red Bulls win | 44.5% | 50.2% | -5.6% |
| Draw | 25.5% | 22.7% | +2.8% |
| Atlanta Utd win | 30.0% | 27.2% | +2.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.2% | 66.3% | -10.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.8% | 48.7% | -14.9% |
| Both teams to score | 59.2% | 66.6% | -7.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.3% | 45.6% | -7.3% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: New York Red Bulls 49.7 / Atlanta Utd 49.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open New York Red Bulls vs Atlanta Utd in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.