Inter Miami vs Charlotte
MLS, USA · 2026-11-07 · 22:00 CET
WWLDW
LDLWWThe score model makes an Inter Miami win the most likely outcome at 55%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 72%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Charlotte win — 24.4% vs 17.7% implied (+6.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Inter Miami 2.27 – 1.49 Charlotte.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inter Miami win | 54.8% | 63.5% | -8.7% |
| Draw | 20.8% | 18.8% | +2.0% |
| Charlotte win | 24.4% | 17.7% | +6.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 89.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 72.5% | 75.2% | -2.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 51.9% | 57.2% | -5.3% |
| Both teams to score | 69.9% | 68.4% | +1.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 81.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 50.0% | 53.0% | -3.0% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Inter Miami 49 / Charlotte 49.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Inter Miami vs Charlotte in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.