FC Cincinnati vs Nashville SC
MLS, USA · 2026-11-07 · 22:00 CET
LWWDW
WDWDWThe score model makes a Nashville SC win the most likely outcome at 38%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 59%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 63.5% vs 53.4% implied (+10.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: FC Cincinnati 1.52 – 1.54 Nashville SC.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cincinnati win | 36.9% | 40.6% | -3.7% |
| Draw | 25.3% | 24.2% | +1.0% |
| Nashville SC win | 37.9% | 35.2% | +2.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.9% | 65.0% | -6.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.5% | 46.6% | -10.1% |
| Both teams to score | 61.9% | 66.6% | -4.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.8% | 45.4% | -8.5% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: FC Cincinnati 49.8 / Nashville SC 49.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open FC Cincinnati vs Nashville SC in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.