CF Montreal vs Vancouver Whitecaps
MLS, USA · 2026-11-07 · 22:00 CET
LDLLD
DWLWWThe score model makes a Vancouver Whitecaps win the most likely outcome at 51%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 69.2% vs 55.4% implied (+13.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: CF Montreal 1.09 – 1.71 Vancouver Whitecaps.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| CF Montreal win | 23.7% | 21.4% | +2.3% |
| Draw | 25.2% | 22.2% | +3.0% |
| Vancouver Whitecaps win | 51.0% | 56.4% | -5.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.0% | 64.9% | -11.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.8% | 44.6% | -13.8% |
| Both teams to score | 55.1% | 62.4% | -7.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.7% | 44.1% | -7.4% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: CF Montreal 49.8 / Vancouver Whitecaps 50.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open CF Montreal vs Vancouver Whitecaps in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.