Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor
Super Lig, Turkey · 2026-11-08 · 16:30 CET
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WWWWWThe score model makes a Trabzonspor win the most likely outcome at 44%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 55%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Both teams to score — 58.8% vs 54.0% implied (+4.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Alanyaspor 1.27 – 1.62 Trabzonspor.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alanyaspor win | 28.9% | 24.9% | +4.0% |
| Draw | 26.7% | 25.1% | +1.6% |
| Trabzonspor win | 44.4% | 50.0% | -5.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.1% | 52.0% | +3.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.8% | 30.6% | +2.1% |
| Both teams to score | 58.8% | 54.0% | +4.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.0% | 35.6% | +1.4% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Alanyaspor 45.2 / Trabzonspor 46.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.