Umraniyespor vs Kayserispor
1. Lig, Turkey · 2026-11-08 · 14:00 CET
DLWWD
WWDDWThe score model makes a Kayserispor win the most likely outcome at 63%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Kayserispor win — 62.9% vs 49.0% implied (+13.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Umraniyespor 0.81 – 1.94 Kayserispor.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Umraniyespor win | 14.1% | 25.8% | -11.8% |
| Draw | 23.0% | 25.1% | -2.2% |
| Kayserispor win | 62.9% | 49.0% | +13.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.0% | 50.0% | +2.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.8% | 29.7% | +0.2% |
| Both teams to score | 48.6% | 52.6% | -3.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.6% | 33.7% | +0.9% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Umraniyespor 48.8 / Kayserispor 11.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Umraniyespor vs Kayserispor in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.