Bandirmaspor vs Karagumruk
1. Lig, Turkey · 2026-11-08 · 11:30 CET
WDLLL
DLLWLThe score model makes a Bandirmaspor win the most likely outcome at 45%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 40%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 80.5% vs 74.4% implied (+6.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Bandirmaspor 1.34 – 0.93 Karagumruk.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bandirmaspor win | 44.9% | 40.4% | +4.5% |
| Draw | 30.1% | 29.7% | +0.5% |
| Karagumruk win | 25.0% | 30.0% | -5.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.7% | 44.5% | -4.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.5% | 25.6% | -6.1% |
| Both teams to score | 45.9% | 50.9% | -5.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.4% | 31.2% | -4.9% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Bandirmaspor 50.9 / Karagumruk 22.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Bandirmaspor vs Karagumruk in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.