Pendikspor vs Istanbulspor AS
1. Lig, Turkey · 2026-11-07 · 17:00 CET
LLLDW
LLLLLThe score model makes a Pendikspor win the most likely outcome at 52%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 75.4% vs 67.6% implied (+7.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Pendikspor 1.60 – 0.91 Istanbulspor AS.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pendikspor win | 52.5% | 52.9% | -0.5% |
| Draw | 27.1% | 24.7% | +2.4% |
| Istanbulspor AS win | 20.4% | 22.3% | -1.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.1% | 53.0% | -6.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.6% | 32.4% | -7.8% |
| Both teams to score | 48.9% | 54.2% | -5.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.4% | 36.4% | -3.9% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Pendikspor 46.1 / Istanbulspor AS 44.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Pendikspor vs Istanbulspor AS in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.