Antalyaspor vs Bursaspor
1. Lig, Turkey · 2026-11-06 · 18:00 CET
WLWLD
LWWWWThe score model makes a Bursaspor win the most likely outcome at 60%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 59%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Bursaspor win — 60.1% vs 50.7% implied (+9.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Antalyaspor 1.02 – 2.04 Bursaspor.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Antalyaspor win | 17.3% | 24.2% | -6.9% |
| Draw | 22.6% | 25.1% | -2.5% |
| Bursaspor win | 60.1% | 50.7% | +9.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.9% | 52.5% | +6.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.5% | 31.9% | +4.6% |
| Both teams to score | 56.4% | 54.7% | +1.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.4% | 36.3% | +2.1% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Antalyaspor 12 / Bursaspor 12 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Antalyaspor vs Bursaspor in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.