Ratchaburi vs Buriram
Thai League 1, Thailand · 2026-11-08 · 13:00 CET
DWWLW
DWWWLThe score model makes a Buriram win the most likely outcome at 38%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 65%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Ratchaburi win — 36.9% vs 25.9% implied (+11.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ratchaburi 1.65 – 1.68 Buriram.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ratchaburi win | 36.9% | 25.9% | +11.0% |
| Draw | 24.9% | 25.2% | -0.3% |
| Buriram win | 38.2% | 48.9% | -10.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.8% | 58.2% | +6.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42.8% | 37.9% | +4.9% |
| Both teams to score | 66.9% | 59.9% | +6.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 81.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 49.7% | 40.6% | +9.0% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Ratchaburi 37.4 / Buriram 36.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Ratchaburi vs Buriram in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.