Port MTI FC vs Chonburi
Thai League 1, Thailand · 2026-11-07 · 13:00 CET
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LLLWWThe score model makes a Port MTI FC win the most likely outcome at 66%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 62%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Port MTI FC win — 66.2% vs 60.9% implied (+5.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Port MTI FC 2.26 – 0.95 Chonburi.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Port MTI FC win | 66.2% | 60.9% | +5.3% |
| Draw | 20.3% | 21.9% | -1.6% |
| Chonburi win | 13.4% | 17.2% | -3.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.2% | 59.1% | +3.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.0% | 39.0% | +1.0% |
| Both teams to score | 55.7% | 55.7% | -0.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 44.1% | 41.2% | +2.9% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Port MTI FC 36.3 / Chonburi 29 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Port MTI FC vs Chonburi in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.