Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai
Thai League 1, Thailand · 2026-11-06 · 13:00 CET
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WLWWLThe score model makes a Lamphun Warrior win the most likely outcome at 61%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 59%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Lamphun Warrior win — 61.0% vs 58.2% implied (+2.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Lamphun Warrior 2.06 – 0.99 Sukhothai.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lamphun Warrior win | 61.0% | 58.2% | +2.7% |
| Draw | 22.6% | 23.0% | -0.4% |
| Sukhothai win | 16.4% | 18.7% | -2.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.9% | 58.1% | +0.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.5% | 37.7% | -1.2% |
| Both teams to score | 56.0% | 55.8% | +0.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.9% | 40.5% | -0.6% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Lamphun Warrior 37.2 / Sukhothai 37.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.