Sukhothai vs Port MTI FC
Thai League 1, Thailand · 2026-09-20 · 13:30 CET
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WWWWWThe score model made a Port MTI FC win the most likely outcome at 55%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). It finished 2:1 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sukhothai 0.94 – 1.75 Port MTI FC.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sukhothai win | 18.8% | 18.1% | +0.7% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.9% | 23.5% | +2.4% | ✗ |
| Port MTI FC win | 55.4% | 58.4% | -3.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.5% | 54.9% | -4.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.4% | 34.7% | -6.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 51.6% | 53.2% | -1.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.5% | 37.8% | -2.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sukhothai 35.8 / Port MTI FC 35.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.