Rayong FC vs Ratchaburi
Thai League 1, Thailand · 2026-09-20 · 13:00 CET
WLDWW
LWWLWThe score model made a Ratchaburi win the most likely outcome at 43%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 63%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Rayong FC 1.51 – 1.76 Ratchaburi.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayong FC win | 32.0% | 26.5% | +5.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.1% | 27.2% | -2.0% | ✓ |
| Ratchaburi win | 42.8% | 46.3% | -3.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.5% | 51.8% | +11.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41.3% | 32.2% | +9.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 65.6% | 54.5% | +11.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 79.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.2% | 35.9% | +7.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Rayong FC 29.3 / Ratchaburi 36.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.