Chonburi vs Buriram
Thai League 1, Thailand · 2026-09-20 · 13:00 CET
DDWLL
LLDWDThe score model made a Buriram win the most likely outcome at 62%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 63%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Chonburi 1.06 – 2.18 Buriram.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chonburi win | 16.4% | 16.9% | -0.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 21.7% | 23.8% | -2.1% | ✗ |
| Buriram win | 61.9% | 59.4% | +2.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.7% | 59.0% | +3.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.5% | 39.3% | +1.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 58.9% | 56.6% | +2.3% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.5% | 40.7% | -4.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Chonburi 26.9 / Buriram 36.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.