Ayutthaya Utd vs Uthai Thani
Thai League 1, Thailand · 2026-09-18 · 14:00 CET
LLLWW
DLLWLThe score model made an Ayutthaya Utd win the most likely outcome at 40%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). It finished 1:2 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ayutthaya Utd 1.38 – 1.17 Uthai Thani.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ayutthaya Utd win | 40.3% | 39.4% | +0.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 29.4% | 30.2% | -0.9% | ✗ |
| Uthai Thani win | 30.3% | 30.3% | -0.0% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.9% | 49.6% | -2.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.4% | 29.8% | -4.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 53.1% | 55.3% | -2.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.6% | 34.2% | -7.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Ayutthaya Utd 20.3 / Uthai Thani 34.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.