St. Gallen vs Lugano
Super League, Switzerland · 2026-11-08 · 14:00 CET
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WWWWWThe score model makes a Lugano win the most likely outcome at 42%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 59%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Lugano win — 42.4% vs 33.8% implied (+8.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: St. Gallen 1.43 – 1.64 Lugano.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| St. Gallen win | 33.4% | 41.4% | -8.0% |
| Draw | 24.2% | 24.8% | -0.6% |
| Lugano win | 42.4% | 33.8% | +8.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.3% | 63.3% | -4.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.0% | 43.3% | -6.4% |
| Both teams to score | 61.6% | 65.8% | -4.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.7% | 44.1% | -3.4% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: St. Gallen 47.8 / Lugano 47.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open St. Gallen vs Lugano in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.