Servette vs Zurich
Super League, Switzerland · 2026-11-08 · 16:30 CET
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WDWWWThe score model makes a Servette win the most likely outcome at 54%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 65%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Zurich win — 24.4% vs 20.9% implied (+3.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Servette 2.04 – 1.32 Zurich.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Servette win | 54.0% | 56.4% | -2.4% |
| Draw | 21.6% | 22.7% | -1.1% |
| Zurich win | 24.4% | 20.9% | +3.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.4% | 62.4% | +2.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43.4% | 41.5% | +1.9% |
| Both teams to score | 64.0% | 61.0% | +3.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.8% | 42.9% | -1.1% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Servette 47.7 / Zurich 47.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Servette vs Zurich in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.