Luzern vs Young Boys
Super League, Switzerland · 2026-11-07 · 18:00 CET
LWLLD
DWWWLThe score model makes a Young Boys win the most likely outcome at 47%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 77%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Luzern win — 32.6% vs 25.8% implied (+6.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Luzern 1.85 – 2.23 Young Boys.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Luzern win | 32.6% | 25.8% | +6.7% |
| Draw | 20.4% | 21.6% | -1.2% |
| Young Boys win | 47.0% | 52.6% | -5.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 91.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 77.3% | 75.2% | +2.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 58.2% | 56.8% | +1.4% |
| Both teams to score | 75.3% | 72.9% | +2.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 83.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 53.6% | 53.1% | +0.5% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Luzern 47.7 / Young Boys 47.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Luzern vs Young Boys in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.