Grasshoppers vs Lausanne
Super League, Switzerland · 2026-11-07 · 20:30 CET
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LLLLLThe score model makes a Grasshoppers win the most likely outcome at 48%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 58%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Grasshoppers win — 47.5% vs 38.1% implied (+9.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Grasshoppers 1.72 – 1.28 Lausanne.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grasshoppers win | 47.5% | 38.1% | +9.4% |
| Draw | 24.0% | 26.8% | -2.8% |
| Lausanne win | 28.5% | 35.1% | -6.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.7% | 58.8% | -1.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.3% | 38.5% | -3.2% |
| Both teams to score | 59.5% | 62.5% | -3.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.7% | 40.8% | -6.1% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Grasshoppers 47.7 / Lausanne 45.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Grasshoppers vs Lausanne in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.