Yverdon vs Xamax
Challenge League, Switzerland · 2026-11-08 · 16:30 CET
LDWWL
WLWDLThe score model makes a Yverdon win the most likely outcome at 63%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 64%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Yverdon win — 62.7% vs 56.7% implied (+6.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Yverdon 2.23 – 1.06 Xamax.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yverdon win | 62.7% | 56.7% | +6.0% |
| Draw | 21.9% | 22.9% | -1.0% |
| Xamax win | 15.5% | 20.4% | -5.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.8% | 63.3% | +0.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41.7% | 42.9% | -1.2% |
| Both teams to score | 59.5% | 61.7% | -2.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.6% | 43.2% | +0.4% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Yverdon 33 / Xamax 47.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Yverdon vs Xamax in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.