Winterthur vs Etoile-Carouge
Challenge League, Switzerland · 2026-11-07 · 18:00 CET
WWLWW
LLLWDThe score model makes a Winterthur win the most likely outcome at 67%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 60%). The data's biggest gap to the market: BTTS: No — 46.6% vs 38.9% implied (+7.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Winterthur 2.23 – 0.88 Etoile-Carouge.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winterthur win | 66.9% | 60.3% | +6.6% |
| Draw | 21.1% | 21.2% | -0.1% |
| Etoile-Carouge win | 12.1% | 18.6% | -6.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.1% | 65.0% | -4.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.7% | 45.2% | -7.5% |
| Both teams to score | 53.4% | 61.1% | -7.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 44.0% | 45.2% | -1.2% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Winterthur 10.8 / Etoile-Carouge 44.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Winterthur vs Etoile-Carouge in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.