Ostersund vs Oddevold
Superettan, Sweden · 2026-11-07 · 15:00 CET
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LWLWWThe score model makes an Oddevold win the most likely outcome at 36%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 45%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Oddevold win — 36.0% vs 25.0% implied (+11.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ostersund 1.23 – 1.24 Oddevold.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ostersund win | 35.4% | 47.6% | -12.2% |
| Draw | 28.6% | 27.3% | +1.2% |
| Oddevold win | 36.0% | 25.0% | +11.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.8% | 50.3% | -5.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.6% | 30.4% | -6.8% |
| Both teams to score | 51.0% | 54.2% | -3.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.8% | 34.7% | -4.9% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Ostersund 45.1 / Oddevold 42 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Ostersund vs Oddevold in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.