Orebro vs Oster
Superettan, Sweden · 2026-11-07 · 15:00 CET
LDDWL
LLWWWThe score model makes an Oster win the most likely outcome at 37%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Oster win — 37.5% vs 21.0% implied (+16.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Orebro 1.37 – 1.41 Oster.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Orebro win | 35.9% | 57.0% | -21.1% |
| Draw | 26.7% | 22.0% | +4.6% |
| Oster win | 37.5% | 21.0% | +16.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.6% | 64.3% | -11.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.4% | 43.7% | -13.3% |
| Both teams to score | 57.1% | 62.2% | -5.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.5% | 44.3% | -7.8% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Orebro 45.3 / Oster 32.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Orebro vs Oster in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.