Ljungskile vs Landskrona
Superettan, Sweden · 2026-11-07 · 15:00 CET
LDWDD
WWLDWThe score model makes a Ljungskile win the most likely outcome at 37%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 69.5% vs 58.5% implied (+10.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ljungskile 1.40 – 1.39 Landskrona.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ljungskile win | 36.8% | 36.5% | +0.3% |
| Draw | 26.6% | 25.9% | +0.7% |
| Landskrona win | 36.6% | 37.6% | -1.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.7% | 61.8% | -9.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.5% | 41.5% | -10.9% |
| Both teams to score | 57.1% | 64.4% | -7.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.5% | 42.5% | -8.0% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Ljungskile 23.6 / Landskrona 45.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Ljungskile vs Landskrona in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.