Landskrona vs Oddevold
Superettan, Sweden · 2026-08-14 · 19:00 CET
DWLWW
LWWDLThe score model made a Landskrona win the most likely outcome at 43%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Landskrona 1.43 – 1.15 Oddevold.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Landskrona win | 43.5% | 40.2% | +3.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.2% | 27.8% | -1.6% | ✓ |
| Oddevold win | 30.3% | 32.0% | -1.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.8% | 51.2% | -3.4% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.1% | 30.5% | -4.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 52.1% | 56.9% | -4.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.2% | 35.0% | -4.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Landskrona 41.7 / Oddevold 37.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.