Brage vs Orebro
Superettan, Sweden · 2026-08-14 · 19:00 CET
LLDDL
DLWDLThe score model made a Brage win the most likely outcome at 53%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 58%). It finished 3:3 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Brage 1.86 – 1.17 Orebro.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brage win | 53.5% | 48.2% | +5.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.7% | 25.4% | -2.7% | ✓ |
| Orebro win | 23.8% | 26.4% | -2.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.4% | 58.1% | +0.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.0% | 37.3% | -1.2% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 58.3% | 60.4% | -2.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.5% | 40.2% | -2.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Brage 41.7 / Orebro 41.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.