Brage vs Orebro
Superettan, Sweden · 2026-08-14 · 19:00 CET
LLDWL
LLDLLThe score model makes a Brage win the most likely outcome at 53%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 58%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Brage win — 53.4% vs 44.7% implied (+8.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Brage 1.86 – 1.17 Orebro.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brage win | 53.4% | 44.7% | +8.7% |
| Draw | 22.7% | 26.3% | -3.6% |
| Orebro win | 23.9% | 29.0% | -5.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.4% | 56.8% | +1.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.0% | 36.2% | -0.1% |
| Both teams to score | 58.3% | 59.6% | -1.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.5% | 38.7% | -1.2% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Brage 41.8 / Orebro 41.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.