Ostersund vs Sundsvall
Superettan, Sweden · 2026-08-07 · 19:00 CET
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LWWLLThe score model made an Ostersund win the most likely outcome at 55%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 1:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ostersund 1.70 – 0.93 Sundsvall.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ostersund win | 55.2% | 64.6% | -9.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.5% | 21.9% | +2.6% | ✗ |
| Sundsvall win | 20.3% | 13.4% | +6.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.1% | 52.4% | -3.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.3% | 31.3% | -4.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.0% | 47.4% | +2.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 60.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.5% | 36.2% | -10.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Ostersund 41.2 / Sundsvall 40.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.