Varberg vs Falkenberg
Superettan, Sweden · 2026-08-01 · 15:00 CET
DLWDL
WLWLWThe score model made a Varberg win the most likely outcome at 41%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 66%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Varberg 1.77 – 1.65 Falkenberg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Varberg win | 40.8% | 47.0% | -6.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.2% | 25.3% | -2.1% | ✗ |
| Falkenberg win | 36.0% | 27.7% | +8.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.4% | 60.1% | +6.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44.6% | 39.3% | +5.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 67.4% | 62.1% | +5.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 46.4% | 41.0% | +5.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Varberg 36.2 / Falkenberg 28.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.