Varberg vs Falkenberg
Superettan, Sweden · 2026-08-01 · 13:00
The score model makes a Varberg win the most likely outcome at 41%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 66%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Varberg 1.77 – 1.64 Falkenberg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Varberg win | 41.1% | 47.7% | -6.6% |
| Draw | 23.2% | 25.5% | -2.4% |
| Falkenberg win | 35.8% | 26.8% | +9.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.2% | 58.2% | +8.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44.3% | 37.4% | +7.0% |
| Both teams to score | 67.1% | 60.3% | +6.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 46.1% | 39.5% | +6.6% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Varberg 36.3 / Falkenberg 28.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.