Sirius vs Brommapojkarna
Allsvenskan, Sweden · 2026-08-10 · 19:00 CET
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WLWLLThe score model made a Sirius win the most likely outcome at 63%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 72%). It finished 2:2 (HT 2:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sirius 2.47 – 1.28 Brommapojkarna.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sirius win | 63.2% | 70.0% | -6.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 18.8% | 18.0% | +0.8% | ✓ |
| Brommapojkarna win | 18.0% | 12.0% | +6.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 89.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 72.3% | 66.6% | +5.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 51.7% | 46.4% | +5.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 66.4% | 56.4% | +10.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.5% | 46.3% | -5.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sirius 39.2 / Brommapojkarna 38.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.