Sirius vs Brommapojkarna
Allsvenskan, Sweden · 2026-08-10 · 19:00 CET
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DLLDLThe score model makes a Sirius win the most likely outcome at 63%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 73%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Both teams to score — 66.6% vs 57.5% implied (+9.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sirius 2.49 – 1.28 Brommapojkarna.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sirius win | 63.5% | 71.2% | -7.7% |
| Draw | 18.8% | 17.4% | +1.4% |
| Brommapojkarna win | 17.7% | 11.4% | +6.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 89.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 72.6% | 68.6% | +4.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 52.0% | 49.1% | +3.0% |
| Both teams to score | 66.6% | 57.5% | +9.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.8% | 47.5% | -6.7% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sirius 39.3 / Brommapojkarna 38.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.