Malmo FF vs Degerfors
Allsvenskan, Sweden · 2026-08-09 · 12:00
The score model makes a Malmo FF win the most likely outcome at 71%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 61%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Malmo FF 2.33 – 0.81 Degerfors.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Malmo FF win | 71.1% | 63.5% | +7.5% |
| Draw | 18.1% | 21.5% | -3.4% |
| Degerfors win | 10.8% | 15.0% | -4.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.7% | 57.2% | +3.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38.4% | 36.2% | +2.1% |
| Both teams to score | 50.4% | 52.6% | -2.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 44.7% | 39.0% | +5.7% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Malmo FF 39.3 / Degerfors 32.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.