Malmo FF vs Degerfors
Allsvenskan, Sweden · 2026-08-09 · 14:00 CET
LWDWL
LLWLLThe score model made a Malmo FF win the most likely outcome at 71%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 61%). It finished 1:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Malmo FF 2.32 – 0.81 Degerfors.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malmo FF win | 70.9% | 64.0% | +6.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 18.1% | 21.3% | -3.2% | ✗ |
| Degerfors win | 11.0% | 14.7% | -3.7% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.5% | 56.9% | +3.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38.2% | 35.7% | +2.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.4% | 52.6% | -2.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 44.4% | 38.9% | +5.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Malmo FF 39.1 / Degerfors 32 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.