Hammarby vs Hacken
Allsvenskan, Sweden · 2026-08-09 · 14:00 CET
WLDWW
WLDDWThe score model made a Hammarby win the most likely outcome at 62%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 65%). It finished 3:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hammarby 2.22 – 1.11 Hacken.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hammarby win | 62.2% | 61.5% | +0.7% | ✓ |
| Draw | 20.4% | 20.3% | +0.0% | ✗ |
| Hacken win | 17.4% | 18.1% | -0.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.6% | 69.6% | -5.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42.6% | 49.9% | -7.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 60.1% | 64.8% | -4.7% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.3% | 48.4% | -9.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Hammarby 39 / Hacken 39.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.