Hammarby vs Hacken
Allsvenskan, Sweden · 2026-08-09 · 12:00
The score model makes a Hammarby win the most likely outcome at 62%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 65%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hammarby 2.23 – 1.11 Hacken.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hammarby win | 62.3% | 61.7% | +0.5% |
| Draw | 20.4% | 20.4% | +0.0% |
| Hacken win | 17.3% | 17.9% | -0.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.9% | 68.8% | -3.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42.9% | 48.8% | -5.9% |
| Both teams to score | 60.3% | 63.8% | -3.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.5% | 47.6% | -8.1% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Hammarby 39.2 / Hacken 39.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.