Halmstad vs GAIS
Allsvenskan, Sweden · 2026-08-09 · 16:30 CET
DWLLW
LWDLWThe score model made a GAIS win the most likely outcome at 54%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 36%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Halmstad 0.71 – 1.42 GAIS.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Halmstad win | 18.0% | 18.8% | -0.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.3% | 24.5% | +3.8% | ✗ |
| GAIS win | 53.6% | 56.7% | -3.1% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 63.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35.8% | 52.1% | -16.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16.7% | 31.4% | -14.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 39.0% | 51.9% | -12.9% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.1% | 35.9% | -7.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Halmstad 38.3 / GAIS 34.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.