Mjallby vs Elfsborg
Allsvenskan, Sweden · 2026-08-08 · 17:30 CET
LLLDD
WDWLWThe score model made a Mjallby win the most likely outcome at 52%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Mjallby 1.64 – 0.98 Elfsborg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mjallby win | 52.1% | 35.9% | +16.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.9% | 28.1% | -2.3% | ✗ |
| Elfsborg win | 22.0% | 36.0% | -14.0% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.7% | 50.1% | -1.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.9% | 29.5% | -2.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 51.0% | 55.7% | -4.7% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.1% | 34.5% | -2.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Mjallby 38.2 / Elfsborg 39.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.