Mjallby vs Elfsborg
Allsvenskan, Sweden · 2026-08-08 · 15:30
The score model makes a Mjallby win the most likely outcome at 52%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Mjallby 1.64 – 0.98 Elfsborg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mjallby win | 52.1% | 37.9% | +14.2% |
| Draw | 25.9% | 28.0% | -2.1% |
| Elfsborg win | 22.1% | 34.1% | -12.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.6% | 50.3% | -1.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.8% | 29.7% | -2.9% |
| Both teams to score | 51.0% | 55.5% | -4.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.1% | 34.2% | -2.1% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Mjallby 38.4 / Elfsborg 39.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.