Malmo FF W vs Vittsjo W
Allsvenskan Women, Sweden · 2026-11-15 · 14:00 CET
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WLLLWThe score model makes a Malmo FF W win the most likely outcome at 74%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 57%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 65.1% vs 52.3% implied (+12.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Malmo FF W 2.28 – 0.70 Vittsjo W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Malmo FF W win | 73.8% | 67.1% | +6.8% |
| Draw | 15.8% | 19.4% | -3.6% |
| Vittsjo W win | 10.4% | 13.5% | -3.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.3% | 66.3% | -9.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.9% | 47.7% | -12.8% |
| Both teams to score | 44.5% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.5% | 46.7% | -6.3% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Malmo FF W 31 / Vittsjo W 38.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Malmo FF W vs Vittsjo W in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.